STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
While we do not have an official call from The Associated Press, which is the organization we rely on to make race calls, it looks pretty clear that Donald Trump is on his way to the presidency once again, and he claimed victory last night.
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DONALD TRUMP: They came from all corners - union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American. We had everybody, and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment.
INSKEEP: Realignment - one of those political terms that suggests that the electorate has changed in some permanent way. That's the beginning of a discussion. Joining us now from Madison, Wisconsin, is Republican pollster B.J. Martino, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group. He has been the lead pollster for Eric Hovde's effort to unseat Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, which is where he is at a very early hour. Welcome to the program, sir.
B J MARTINO: Thank you for having me.
INSKEEP: What do you make of the former president's analysis there? We certainly don't have all the details, but it does seem that he did better than expected in many, many parts of the country.
MARTINO: Well, he's not wrong. When you look at the exit polls in the key states that were critical to this election, he did do better than Republicans have in the past with Hispanic voters, African American men, union voters, middle-class voters. The gains that Donald Trump saw in 2024 are really very much across the board.
INSKEEP: And I want to just mention here, if I can, Mr. Martino, it's appropriate that you are joining us from Wisconsin in this moment because The Associated Press in the past few seconds has made a call of the presidential race. Based on former President Trump winning Wisconsin, the AP calls Donald Trump the next president of the United States. Of course, that's not official. We got to do some counting and everything else, but that is the AP race call. What do you make of that?
MARTINO: Well, I think we saw this coming. There were just some precincts and wards remaining in Milwaukee and a couple other places in the state. But from a pretty early point in this night, we saw that Donald Trump was likely to win the state of Wisconsin. As he has been doing very well in Pennsylvania and Michigan, the other blue wall states all moved to the right this year.
INSKEEP: Do you think that Americans were simply unhappy with the direction of the country and that that was baked into the race from the beginning, something Democrats really could never change?
MARTINO: Well, whether they could change it perhaps is a different issue, but change was certainly a theme here. You look at where voters - ongoing disapproval of the job that Joe Biden was doing as president. And then Harris' inability to articulate a single way in which she would differ from Biden left voters wanting. When you look at the exit polls this year, again, in these key states, 30% said they wanted a candidate who had the ability to lead was most important for them. Trump won them 65 to 34. Change - can bring needed change - 27% said that was the most important factor. Trump won those voters 73 to 25 in the exit polling. So change was certainly one of the drivers, as were ongoing concerns about the economy.
INSKEEP: Did it surprise you that the last couple of weeks seemed not to affect the difference ultimately? The former president had a much-criticized rally at Madison Square Garden. He embraced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on health issues in a way that seemed unusual to many people. There were a variety of statements made that were questioned, but he wins in the end. Maybe it made a difference. We can't really say. But it certainly didn't make a difference in the outcome to him.
MARTINO: Well, think about the number of events over the past two years in which we said, oh, this is going to make a difference in the way voters view Donald Trump, whether it be indictments or court decisions. Their - voters have a view of Donald Trump. What they didn't ultimately have was a clear view of who Kamala Harris was and her vision for how she would change from this past administration. Even though she was attempting to grasp the mantle of change, voters did not see it.
INSKEEP: B.J. Martino, Republican pollster, thanks very much for your insights this morning. I really appreciate it.
MARTINO: My pleasure. Take care.
INSKEEP: And again, it was appropriate that we were talking with someone in Wisconsin at this moment because Donald Trump has now won the presidency based on an Associated Press race call of Wisconsin that puts him over 270 electoral votes. And we now turn to two of our correspondents who have covered this entire momentous campaign, NPR's Tamara Keith and Danielle Kurtzleben. They're both here in Studio 31. Good morning to you both.
TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Good morning.
DANIELLE KURTZLEBEN, BYLINE: Good morning.
INSKEEP: What do you make of what you just heard?
KURTZLEBEN: You know, there's something that - there was an exchange you two had about voters wanting change and could Democrats - could Harris have done something different? To me, that is going to be the big postmortem question that we're looking at. I keep thinking about something that a Democratic strategist, a guy who doesn't sugarcoat things, told me in the last couple of weeks, where I asked him, hey, what - excuse me.
INSKEEP: Take your time. It's been a long night.
KURTZLEBEN: It really has. I asked him, hey, how is Harris doing? And he said, she really could not have done anything any better. I mean, so I think the question really is going to be, is this "candidate error," quote-unquote? Is this the voters just wanted this no matter what? And I know we're going to be picking that apart.
KEITH: Yeah, I mean, a big part of her pitch was turn the page on Donald Trump. Turn the page on the Trump era. Clearly, the American people or some large portion - large enough portion of the American people were not ready to turn the page on that and instead wanted to move on from this era of high inflation and go back to 2019. Like, make 2019 great again.
KURTZLEBEN: I do keep thinking - from last night, the big thing I'm looking at is Florida. And here's the reason why is because they had that ballot measure about abortion. It did fail, but 57% of people voted for abortion rights. Even while a substantial majority of that state also voted for Donald Trump, you have some very significant portion of that state who voted for him and voted against one of the major consequences of his presidency that he celebrated. That is another thing that we're really going to have to pick apart - people who are fine with him but not the consequences of what he did.
INSKEEP: And if I'm not mistaken, that may not be the only state where something like that is the case...
KURTZLEBEN: Yeah.
INSKEEP: ...By the end of all - there were other abortion measures that passed in states that Trump may carry. Go ahead, Michel.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let me ask a question about the realignment question that Donald Trump raised in his victory speech, where he said that this really does represent a realignment. And he did identify certain groups that are not traditionally identified as Republican voters and who many people saw as him having disparaged at some point, you know, over the course of his campaign and over the course of his presidency. So Tam, I guess, or Danielle, whoever feels is appropriate, is that true? I mean, is there a realignment here that we need to be paying attention to?
KURTZLEBEN: I think that all along, we've been tracking sort of a realignment along economic and educational lines that was different, that Democrats were trying to claim more of the traditional Republican population. And Trump was trying to claim more of that working-class population, and it appears as though he succeeded.
INSKEEP: And again, we know the result because the Associated Press has called Wisconsin for Donald Trump, and that means he's over 270 electoral votes and headed for the presidency. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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