Snowpack was near normal for much of the upper Colorado River basin this winter. By April 1, which is what hydrologists typically consider to be the end of winter for water measurement, the upper basin had received about 90% of its historical median snowpack.
There were some outliers among the smaller basins that make up the larger Colorado River Basin. Some areas, like the San Juans in southwestern Colorado, as well as southern Utah, had even lower snowpacks, as low as 56% of normal in March.
Despite the overall positive snowpack report, hydrologists and drought forecasters are not optimistic about runoff. Forecasters predict that through July, runoff will be at 67% of average above Lake Powell, the largest reservoir on the Upper Basin.
“Dry soils across the West, both going into the winter season and during the spring, combined with a relatively hot, dry March have really diminished our predicted streamflow for the summer,” said Nels Bjarke, a hydrologist with the Western Water Assessment (WWA).
Essentially, hotter temperatures—driven by climate change—cause water to evaporate from plants, soil, and surface water much quicker than in the past, Bjarke said. That means that when there’s snow or rain, the dry landscape is going to soak up water that would otherwise flow into rivers and streams.
There’s no guarantee that monsoon season, which typically lasts from July to September, will bring relief, either.
“The reason that we can generate robust forecasts across the West is because snow is a really great indicator of how much water we're gonna have in our rivers, whereas the… later summer, spring precipitation is slightly less predictable,” Bjarke said.
We can, however, get a sense of what might be on the horizon from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) season outlooks.
“There's an increased probability of a hotter than average summer across the western U.S. and a drier summer in terms of precipitation for most of the upper Colorado River basin,” Bjarke said. “Those are shifts in probabilities. Those aren't estimates of exact volumes.”
Another factor of rapidly warming temperatures, Bjarke said, is the timing of snowmelt and runoff.
“You might see an earlier peak in your runoff,” he said. “And that might change the way you fundamentally think about the management of the water in our river systems.”
Potential changes to drought classifications
Because of the impacts of climate change, Bjarke said that many researchers are taking a closer look at the framework in which they study and discuss drought. He said in its most basic form, drought is a period of time that is drier than an agreed-upon, long-term representative period.
“If you classified a somewhat dry year, let's say this year, 2025, relative to, say, 1950 to 2000, you might say, ‘wow, this is definitely a drought year. It's looking much drier than that entire period,’” he gave as an example.
“Now, if you classified this year compared to, let's say the last 10 or last 15 years, you might say, ‘well, it's a little dry, but it's certainly not as dry as some of the most extreme years that we've seen across the West in the last decade or two.’”
Impacts from funding cuts
Bjarke acknowledged that there are big challenges to doing the research that he and others at WWA, and other NOAA climate collaborations across the country, are trying to do.
“We are certainly feeling the uncertainty about our ability to continue providing this critical information, particularly given the current federal funding landscape,” he said.
NOAA cut hundreds of staff during layoffs this winter, part of a larger effort by the Trump administration to reduce the federal workforce. Those staff cuts led to a reduction in weather balloon launches, including in Grand Junction, CO and Riverton, WY, and a cancellation of launches altogether in some areas. That’s concerning to weather forecasters, who rely heavily on data from those weather balloons, like wind, humidity, and air pressure. The more data weather forecasters have, the better their models work.
Already, some meteorologists are saying that the staffing cuts and reduced weather balloon launches are hurting the quality of their forecasts.
“I will say that reducing our ability to provide this, what I consider to be very valuable information, would have significant impacts on our communities across the West, which includes but is not limited to making those communities less resilient and able to plan for hazards like drought, floods, and wildfire,” he said.
Despite the challenges, researchers like Bjarke at the Western Water Assessment are thinking about how they can better collaborate with the communities they serve. Wildfire risk is a big concern among partners, and so WWA researchers are looking more at the research they can do to address these needs.
“How a wildfire might affect the region in terms of air quality with smoke kind of blowing around, or how a watershed that experienced a wildfire might have impacts related to water quality down the line and those impacts might last much longer than the fire season,” he gave as some examples of the questions they’re asking.
Already, much of the Southwest is experiencing drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That includes much of the Upper Colorado River Basin.
In Colorado, most of Garfield and Pitkin counties are experiencing moderate drought, while some of Mesa, Delta, and Montrose counties are experiencing severe and extreme drought conditions. The Four Corners region, including La Plata and Montezuma counties, are seeing moderate to severe drought conditions.
In Wyoming, Teton County and the Snake River are in a moderate or severe drought.
In Utah, Grand and San Juan counties, where the Colorado River flows, are experiencing severe drought. Last week, Utah Governor Spencer Cox declared a state of emergency in 17 counties, due to drought conditions.
Copyright 2025 Rocky Mountain Community Radio. This story was shared via Rocky Mountain Community Radio, a network of public media stations in Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico, including Aspen Public Radio.
