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Trump and Brazilian leader exchange barbs as relations strain between the 2 countries

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

It has been quite an undiplomatic week in U.S.-Brazil relations. The leaders of both countries have exchanged barbs. President Trump has threatened to slap 50% tariffs on all Brazilian goods. Why? Trump says Brazil is unfairly treating its former president, a right-wing political ally, by putting him on trial for plotting a coup to stay in power. Of all the trade letters that Trump sent out to various countries this week, Brazil's tariff threat was distinct and highly personal in tone. We go to NPR's Carrie Kahn in Rio de Janeiro. Carrie, thanks so much for being with us.

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: Thanks for having me.

SIMON: When did all of this back-and-forth start between Trump and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva?

KAHN: Lula was hosting the annual BRICS summit - that's a group of emerging economies - and they put out this group declaration blasting tariffs, but they took care not to mention the U.S. or Trump. That didn't matter to Trump. He was already upset, and he set off a post threatening a 10% tariff against, quote, "any country that aligns with BRICS' anti-American" stance. Then he posted support of Bolsonaro in another post, and then Wednesday, he upped the ante to this 50% tariff, citing the treatment of Bolsonaro.

SIMON: And what draws him to support the former Brazilian leader?

KAHN: Well, first, just a reminder who Jair Bolsonaro is. He's the former far-right president, and he was Brazil's leader when Trump was president during his first term. The two are ideological allies. Bolsonaro lost his 2022 reelection bid to Lula, and supporters rioted in the capital of Brasilia just days after Lula's inauguration. Bolsonaro has been charged with attempting a coup to stay in power, and his trial is currently underway. Trump has long supported him and says that he feels for Bolsonaro, and he repeatedly compares what he says were unfair attacks against himself for his role in the January 6 riots in Washington, D.C., to Bolsonaro's case. Bolsonaro has been banned from running for political office until 2030, and he's actually facing quite a long prison term if he's found guilty of plotting to stay in power. Lula repeatedly told Trump this week to butt out of Brazil's business. Only Brazil's courts will rule on its democracy and judiciary, not another country.

SIMON: I gather President Trump is demanding that Brazil's Supreme Court drop the case against Bolsonaro or the 50% tariffs come in. Can Lula even make that happen?

KAHN: Lula can't. And even if he could, I just don't see any reason why he would. First off, Bolsonaro is his chief political rival. The case against Bolsonaro is quite damning. The Supreme Court, like you said, which is trying the case, just released this nearly 900-page report on the investigation, and it includes a ton of digital evidence. There's also a lot of cellphone records. They're accusing Bolsonaro of running this vast conspiracy to overturn the election results, grant special powers to the military, disband the courts. And even there was a plan to assassinate Lula. Also, Lula, you know, his popularity is not so great these days, and he is getting quite a political boost from standing up to Trump and defending Brazil so staunchly. He's also bashing Bolsonaro's son and allies for getting Trump to take such drastic steps that definitely will hurt the Brazilian economy.

SIMON: What could the economic consequences be here for Brazil?

KAHN: First off, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil. Trump got that one wrong. But Brazil's biggest exports to the U.S. are aircrafts, oil and steel products, but also coffee. Brazil is the world's largest coffee exporter, and that could really hurt U.S. consumers if the prices go up. And this is kind of something you don't really think about, but Brazil is also a huge orange juice exporter, so American breakfasts could get a hit, as well as hamburgers. Brazilian beef is really big in the U.S., too.

Whether Brazil's economy can absorb the economic fallout, maybe. Some economists say U.S. exports are about 1% of GDP. China could pick up a lot of that slack. One coffee exporter I talked to here said he's already looking for new markets. Brazil also has economic retaliation that it could take against U.S. products, too. It could tax American intellectual property. It could also break pharmaceutical patents and start making its own generic drugs. You know, Brazil's economy is the third largest in the hemisphere. It's not like when Trump was threatening Colombia over not taking back deportees. Brazil is a tougher foe in this fight, and it's very clear Lula has really no incentive and it's definitely not in his nature to back down.

SIMON: NPR's Carrie Kahn in Rio. Thanks so much for being with us.

KAHN: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Carrie Kahn is NPR's International Correspondent based in Mexico City, Mexico. She covers Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. Kahn's reports can be heard on NPR's award-winning news programs including All Things Considered, Morning Edition and Weekend Edition, and on NPR.org.
Scott Simon is one of America's most admired writers and broadcasters. He is the host of Weekend Edition Saturday and is one of the hosts of NPR's morning news podcast Up First. He has reported from all fifty states, five continents, and ten wars, from El Salvador to Sarajevo to Afghanistan and Iraq. His books have chronicled character and characters, in war and peace, sports and art, tragedy and comedy.