SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Wednesday's shooting of two West Virginia National Guard members could result in major immigration policy changes. Twenty-year-old Sarah Beckstrom has died. Twenty-four-year-old Andrew Wolfe is in critical condition. The suspect in custody is an Afghan national who entered the U.S. through Operation Allies Welcome. In 2021, his application for asylum was approved under the Trump administration. President Trump has called for several measures, like a permanent pause on migration from, quote, "all third world countries" and denaturalizing those who, quote, "undermine domestic tranquility." NPR's Ron Elving joins us. Ron, thanks for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: Those would be sweeping changes. Can the president really do that?
ELVING: The president can say what he wants to say. He can make everyone respond to whatever he's proposing. He can steer the conversation and, to some degree, control the agenda. He can also issue, as we know, his executive orders and make elements of the executive branch do things. But the scale of these threats and the use of terms, such as permanent pause or third world countries or disturbing domestic tranquility - let's just say there would be a lot to work out in the enforcement. And that's assuming any such effort survived in federal courts.
Now, Trump did attempt something like this with his so-called Muslim ban early in his first term. That caused great confusion and disruption and court resistance until, finally, a third revision got the blessing of the Supreme Court on a 5-4 vote.
SIMON: How popular are President Trump's immigration policies with Americans right now?
ELVING: They have been popular. Immigration has been his best issue with voters this year, but his approval numbers on immigration have fallen lately, along with his polls in general. There's been less attention paid to the southern border in the media and lots of negative notice given to ICE raids and deportations.
Now this tragic National Guard story could turn things around again, like in 2015. You may remember it was exactly 10 years ago this time of year that Trump, then just a candidate for the Republican nomination, proposed a ban on all Muslims entering the U.S. That, too, is in response to a shocking gun crime that was attributed to immigrants. And lo and behold, that posting on Twitter boosted Trump back to the lead in major polls of Republicans who were seeking the White House in that cycle. It's possible Trump has not forgotten how all that played out for him back then.
SIMON: Another critical question of the week, what is the status of that 28-point plan the U.S. presented to Ukraine with a Thanksgiving deadline?
ELVING: The plan was close to a set of proposals from a Russian diplomat named Dmitriev. What that plan gave Russia was parts of eastern Ukraine that the Russian army has occupied but also other parts that they have not. Now, that's a big deal. It's largely what the war has been about. So Ukraine has parried that thrust for now, and the question is whether the Russians can live with something less.
Putin made it clear on Friday that he expects to gain a lot of territory in this deal, and he scoffed at suggestions that Trump's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, had been coaching the Russians or helping them deal with Trump. And, of course, not helping this process is that Andrii Yermak, a top negotiator and one of the most powerful men in Ukraine, resigned yesterday in the wake of a major corruption scandal.
SIMON: Ron, what are you watching for in Congress between now and the holidays?
ELVING: The biggest thing right now is health care - what to do about expiring subsidies for health insurance under Obamacare that are going to cause enormous spikes in what people have to pay and cost some people their insurance. That was the issue in the shutdown this fall, and it has not been resolved. Last week, Trump said those subsidies might just have to be extended for a time, maybe just long enough to get past the 2026 midterm elections. That would be politically expedient. But many House Republicans are digging in their heels - do not want to be seen as bailing out Obamacare, even if temporarily. And without a resolution on this issue, we may well be right back in government shutdown early next year.
SIMON: Ron Elving, thanks so much.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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