SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The world's attention has been gripped by the war in Iran, but the conflict in Ukraine continues. Ukraine has carried out a series of dramatic drone strikes recently that have reached deep into Russian territory, including Moscow. Could it be a sign that Kyiv is gaining some advantage in the conflict? We're joined now by Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrew's University in Scotland. Professor, thanks so much for being with us.
PHILLIPS O'BRIEN: Glad to be here. Thanks for having me, Scott.
SIMON: How has the nature of the war changed in recent months?
O'BRIEN: Well, in some ways, you know, on the battlefield, when you look at the line, that hasn't changed much at all. But that is obscuring the fact that what is happening when it comes to longer- and medium-range strike has seen the Ukrainians improve what they're doing and the Russians sort of unable to do more.
So when you talk about long-range strike and that strike into Russia - quite far into Russia in some ways, we're talking over a thousand miles into Russia at times - the Ukrainians have had much greater success this year than last year. And they are targeting some very important economic sites - those that deal with oil production, oil refinement, more recently, electronics sites, which make advanced components for missiles. So we can see the Ukrainians doing things they couldn't do before, and they're having real strategic effect - that Russia's having a significant gas shortage right now in many regions in the country. So that's long-range strike.
In medium-range strike, the Ukrainians are doing things they couldn't do before. And the best example of that is they are isolating the Peninsula of Crimea, which is occupied part of Ukraine. And they're making it very difficult for the Russians to get anything in and out of Crimea, and much of the population's actually trying to get out. So we can see the doing these things they couldn't do before.
SIMON: Well, could these marks of success for the Ukrainian war effort change Vladimir Putin's calculations and the public support he's had for the war?
O'BRIEN: Well, certainly. It is a dictatorship, so we have to be very careful about talking about Russian public opinion mattering. However, it has shattered the myth that Putin tried to get across to his population about the war. The - what the Russian government was telling the people, particularly in the two major cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which have a very large percentage of the Russian population - they were saying, everything is going fine. We're winning. Your lifestyle's going to be unaffected. You'll still be able to get all the consumer goods you want. So let me fight the war. Let me win the war, and you can celebrate. That narrative's gone. I mean, Russia - as, you know, Moscow and St. Petersburg are getting hit now. Targets and the - and, like, the Moscow Refinery was hit the other day.
So it's sort of the old narrative under which Putin was operating is gone. And that is very worrying to a - any dictatorial system which is based on the idea that we are strong and successful. So that has to make for some very uncomfortable thinking among Putin's inner circles and those that are watching it. We just have to be very careful not to think, oh, there will be a popular uprising. That's a lot to ask for.
SIMON: But you're suggesting maybe people in Putin's inner circle could have a change of mind?
O'BRIEN: Well, one would think. I mean, that - Putin's grand bargain that he's had for many people is, let me run the military, the foreign policy. Let me make Russia a great power. I'll keep you happy, give you money. You know, the Russian people will get what they want, and let me play the ruler. If he can't guarantee the Russian people the material success that he's wanted to give them or said he could give them and he can't guarantee the oligarchs and those around him the billions of dollars he's made sure they've gotten, that sort of destroys his old idea of ruling - why he was in power.
And so those who are sitting around him, by the way, must be getting very uncomfortable looking at this war going this way. I mean, this is not a success. This is a failure - a strategic failure for Russia. The Russian people are now understanding that. And therefore, being associated with that regime and being associated with its policies is going to be problematic.
SIMON: What about U.S. support for Ukraine? How would you characterize that now?
O'BRIEN: There is no U.S. support for Ukraine. United States is not giving Ukraine any aid. It stopped giving Ukraine aid almost immediately when Donald Trump became president. They've sold a very small amount to Europe for the Europeans - at full price - to hand to Ukraine, though the Iran war means there's almost none of that left anyway. And the United States has actually been an agent of Putin in negotiations with the Ukrainians. So the United States government spent most of 2025 trying to bully the Ukrainians into giving up territory and people.
SIMON: Well, in the minute we have left, Europeans have stepped up, at least rhetorically. What real difference has that made?
O'BRIEN: Well, it's made a lot. Look, they've stepped up with money, too. I mean, the Europeans don't have all the weapons the Ukrainians need. There are certain weapons, such as the American Patriot system, the Europeans don't have. But what has happened is, as the United States has left Ukraine and really is giving it no aid whatsoever, the Europeans have stepped up with money and weapons to try and fill up the gap. Now, they can't replace the United States, but they certainly have helped. And more importantly, with the United States not able to influence Ukraine the way it has, the Europeans have not restrained Ukraine from making the long-range strike into Russia that the United States did not like them doing.
SIMON: Phillips O'Brien, professor at St. Andrew's University in Scotland. Thank you so much for joining us.
O'BRIEN: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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