Coulter Lake Guest Ranch is a cozy collection of green-trimmed red cabins at the edge of a small lake north of Rifle. It’s been through a lot in its 125 years, but last winter was unique.
“I've lived here my entire life,” said Forest Keith, the guest ranch’s owner and everyman. “Fifty-two years, and that's the worst winter that I can remember.”
At the ranch, Keith and his wife cook dinner, make beds, and take guests out on horseback or snowmobile rides, depending on the season.
But in late May, the dock hung over empty space. The lake’s surface was surrounded by sand and rock that’s typically underwater this time of year.
Keith said the ranch lost as much as 90% of its typical business this winter.
“Normally, we'll do a dozen to 15 groups of snowmobilers,” he said. “This year, we did one. … Everybody I know is affected somehow, whether it be you didn't get your skiing in this year, or you're financially dependent on tourism or the weather.”
Keith has seen multiple cancellations this summer too, because the lake's water levels are so low.
And he’s been fielding concerns from couples who want to book the guest ranch for their weddings.
“The brides are looking for a lakeside wedding, and it's kind of tough when the lake is a quarter of what it normally is,” he said.
Other potential guests have questions about the looming El Niño and the monsoon rain it might bring.
It doesn’t put Keith off — at least not yet.
“I don't think the people in this sort of business are gonna be swayed by just one year,” Keith said, referring to the low-snow winter. “If we had five years of this, 10 years of this, or something, that would be a different thing altogether.”
Businesses of all sizes in the region have to grapple with if — or how — to adapt their operations as the climate shifts.
The region’s largest employer, Aspen One, is the parent company of Aspen Skiing Company. More than a quarter of the jobs in Pitkin County fall under its umbrella.
The resorts are a big draw for tourists, and visitors to the upper valley generate $2 billion in economic activity.
Aspen One and SkiCo leadership told the Aspen City Council in a public meeting in June that this winter was a setback, but they fared better than other Colorado ski resorts. For much of the winter, the company displayed a banner on its website touting that Aspen Snowmass had a higher percentage of terrain open than any other resort in the state.
But ski visitation still dropped 21.5% in Aspen last winter compared to the previous ski season, slightly better than the statewide average of 24%. This downward trajectory is part of a three-year decline in skier visits at Aspen Snowmass’s four mountains, leadership said.
Aspen One CEO Dave Tanner told Snowmass Village’s town council on June 15 that the trend is concerning for the ski business beyond this past winter.
“We're managing in the very short term, but the trend lines are not good,” he said.
Tanner and his colleagues spoke to pressures on the industry from all sides: rising costs, a dwindling skier base, traffic and housing issues for employees and visitors, and shrinking winters due to climate change.
Aspen Skiing Company CEO Geoff Buchheister said the lack of natural snowfall has a significant impact on the industry.
“Obviously, after closing Buttermilk twice this year and feeling like I almost needed to close Snowmass on Christmas Day, it's a real situation for us,” he said.
SkiCo is investing $6 million in snowmaking this year, Buchheister told Snowmass’ council. But Buchheister said snowmaking only works if temperatures dip below freezing.
In addition to the millions in snowmaking and other investments around Aspen, the company is also expanding outside the Roaring Fork Valley. Aspen One is building luxury hotels under its hospitality arm in places like New York City and Charleston, South Carolina. It’s also expanding its Ventures arm, starting with its apparel brand Aspen Collection.
“The only way to make the investment in these mountains and the staffing levels and the support for the communities and the employees we have is to actually grow outside the valley,” Tanner said during the meeting with Snowmass Village’s Town Council.
Aspen One and SkiCo leadership said this evolution is necessary — skiing can’t support the business on its own anymore.
“We're trying to keep it in the DNA, but the alternative is this thing shrivels and dies over 10 to 15 years,” Tanner said.
Aspen One has declined to discuss details of the financial impact of last winter or do a follow-up interview for this story about its recent presentations to local governments.
Aspen One’s strategy of diversification is less accessible to many small businesses in the region, but many of them see a need for change too.
At the boat ramp in Silt in early June, Deirdra Harcourt flipped over flat stones along the edge of the Colorado River, looking for the carcasses of different species of flies.
“The mayflies came really early; a lot of species were really confused this season,” she said.
Harcourt is a fly fishing guide — the carcasses tell her what fish are eating and what fishing flies she should use. But her main business is River Shuttles.
“I transport vehicles for fly fishing guides, rafters, and kayakers on the Roaring Fork and Colorado River,” Harcourt said. “So, when they put their boat in the water, I take their truck and trailer to their destination. I've been doing this since 1999.”
Harcourt has a spiritual connection to the Colorado — “sacred waters,” she calls it, but her business also depends on the river.
“If there's no snow, then there's no water,” she said. “And if there's no water, then there's no fishing. And if there's no fishing, then there's no economy, so all of that's pretty basic math.”
The parking lot of the boat ramp was empty. Harcourt said there’d typically 10 times as many cars and boat trailers this time of year.
Most of Harcourt’s income comes from her shuttle work — nearly every day from Easter to Thanksgiving.
“Without the financial security of knowing that I'm going to have 15, 20 shuttles a day, I don't know what that's going to look like.”
Harcourt picks up other jobs in the winter, but her life revolves around the river in the summer. It’s hard to think about diversifying without leaving her business behind, but she’s also concerned about the impact of climate change on the river she loves.
“We've had winters that were low snow impact, but then it came back the next year, or the previous year was okay,” she said. “We've been on an extended drought for a really long time.”
After the record-breaking winter, she sees this as kind of a reckoning point.
The outdoor world — the cycle of summer and winter — is shifting. And maybe, she said, we shouldn’t just keep pushing through.
“It doesn't mean we can't be out there,” she said. “We can still enjoy. There's beautiful birds to look at. It's a beautiful time, but I think we need to renegotiate our relationship with the water.”
Harcourt said she’s not exactly sure what it looks like on a broad scale. She’s grappling with it on a personal and business level.
“There's much bigger cycles that happen that I can't see in my lifetime, so there's always hope,” she said. “I'm not super gloom, gloom, doom, but I want to try to find the silver lining. I'm just not sure what that is right now.”
Forest Keith, the guest ranch owner, is a little more optimistic. Even after a devastating season last winter, he’s not worried.
“I just don't see it repeating, and if it does, then I think we're all gonna find something else to have fun doing in the mountains,” he said.
He runs another business, Flat Tops Adventures, that’s less tied to snow and water, leading hunting tours and other outdoor excursions.
But he said owning and operating the ranch is a dream job — the peace of being up in the mountains, the proximity to hunting, fishing and other outdoor sports — even if his livelihood is at the mercy of Mother Nature.
