This winter’s snow drought is shaping up to be the worst on record for the Upper Colorado River Basin.
The snow-water equivalent, or the amount of water stored in snowpack, is at just 61% of median across all SNOTEL monitoring sites above Lake Powell.
Both Colorado and Utah are experiencing their lowest snowpack on record. In the Colorado River headwaters, snow-water equivalent is just 54% of median, and 56% in the Gunnison River basin. Snowpack is even lower in the Four Corners, 47% of median snow-water equivalent in the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan region, and that figure is the same in Southeastern Utah.
Snow drought isn’t as bad in Wyoming. The Upper Green River is at 98% of median snow-water equivalent, and the Snake River is at 95%.
Forecasters are predicting that even if we get above average snow in the next two months, we’ll still end the winter with below average snowpack.
Seth Arens, a scientist with the Western Water Assessment, said the dry period we’ve experienced this winter has been exacerbated by record warm temperatures. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming all experienced their warmest Decembers ever recorded.
“That led to more rain and less snow,” Arens said.
“There's many locations in the basin that still got snow, but some of those—a lot of those mid-elevation areas—didn't start building a snow pack until January, rather than in November, just because it was so warm,” he said.
Much of the region relies on spring snowmelt for water, but the last several years have had an inefficient runoff, which means not all of the water in snow actually makes it into rivers and streams.
“We've seen a trend in the last several years—five, eight years—of stream flow forecasts consistently getting worse throughout the late winter, and even into runoff period,” Arens said.
So we may see more of that. A lot of that does have to do with how dry soils are.”
Last year marked extremely inefficient runoff for the Upper Basin. In January 2025, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center predicted 81% of average runoff, but that forecast decreased to 67% by April. By the time runoff was over, the basin only saw 41% of average streamflows.
Arens said if the melt period starts mid-March as opposed to early to mid-April, it’s more likely we’ll have an inefficient runoff.
“Just because when you lengthen that period of melt, which usually means starting that melt earlier, the snow melt happens more slowly, and that some of that water is lost both through transpiration from trees and also through evaporation,” Arens explained
Arens said that though the lack of snow is a problem now for resorts and winter recreationists, most Western communities will really start to see the impacts of this winter when we get to the spring and summer months.
“Thinking about water deliveries, wildfire, agricultural impacts, water shortages.”
Lots of the agencies, entities, water users, and communities that work with the Western Water Assessment are planning for the worst-case scenario come spring, he said.
“What if this year continues to go as badly as it could go? And then what if we have drought for another two or three years after that? Then what sort of conditions are we facing?”
Copyright 2026 Rocky Mountain Community Radio. This story was shared via Rocky Mountain Community Radio, a network of public media stations in Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico, including Aspen Public Radio.
