The federal government finalized new rules Friday to operate the Colorado River’s biggest reservoirs in the next two years.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s plan calls for California, Arizona and Nevada to take significant cuts to their water supply from the river, at least in the short term. Those states, collectively known as the Lower Basin, will lose out on 1.25 million acre-feet of water a year.
One acre-foot supplies enough for about two average households. Water delivered to those states supports tribes, vast expanses of irrigated agriculture and cities like Phoenix and Los Angeles.
Reclamation’s plan will be in place for 10 years, though actual specifics of conservation measures and water cuts will likely be re-issued every two years.
The Colorado River is drying up — it now has far less water flowing than it did since 2000. That means there is less water to share between the Lower Basin and the Upper Basin states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico).
The newly finalized plan replaces guidelines that have been in place since 2007 and will take effect on Oct. 1.
Deeper water cuts may be coming
For years, the Upper and Lower basin states have been unable to reach a long-term agreement to share increasingly scarce water. That forced Reclamation to impose its own plan on the states.
If the states do have a breakthrough, then their own long-term agreement could replace or modify the federal rules, according to the agency.
The Lower Basin states have proposed water cuts for months, in an effort to stave off deeper cuts that the federal government could have imposed on them.
Still, Arizona has sharply criticized aspects of Reclamation’s plan ever since the agency published a final environmental review last month.
If greater water cuts take effect, they “would inflict catastrophic harm on Arizona’s citizens without any corresponding mandatory contribution from the Upper Division States,” according to an Aug. 10 letter sent by Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources.
No mandatory cuts to Upper Basin states
Reclamation’s plan does not call for mandatory water cuts to the Upper Basin states.
Those states are instead developing a much smaller, voluntary water conservation plan that will be paid for by the federal government. The Lower Basin states have also committed to a voluntary water conservation program.
Colorado is already dealing with its own state-level water cuts this year, because of a historically bad drought and its worst snowpack on record. That has left farms, ranches and cities scrambling to shore up supplies.
In a statement, California’s lead Colorado River negotiator JB Hamby said Friday’s plan was a short-term fix, and that the Upper Basin states would have to contribute more water in the future.
“This is a bridge, not a permanent solution,” he said. “But three states cannot carry the responsibility of all seven.”
Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s top negotiator, said in a statement that Colorado is still committed to a basin-wide solution, and that statewide water shortages this year were similar to mandatory cuts faced by the Lower basin.
“We also acknowledge that the Upper Division States face mandatory cuts already, including water rights that predate the 1922 Colorado River Compact by decades,” she said.
Protecting Powell
The plan also limits how much water is released from Lake Powell. That’s because Powell, and its downstream neighbor, Lake Mead, are at their lowest water levels ever recorded.
Lake Powell is inching closer towards “minimum power pool” — below that level, it cannot generate hydroelectric power used by millions. Reclamation expects to release between 6-7 million acre-feet of water over the next year from the gargantuan lake, which is well below its historical average.
If water levels continue to drop, Powell could one day reach “deadpool,” where billions of gallons of water are effectively trapped, like a massive bathtub without a drain.
Flexibility if drought persists
The 10-year plan offers wide latitude to the Interior Secretary if drought and terrible snowpack continue to parch the basin. Reclamation is allowed to reduce releases even more from Lake Powell, and impose even harsher water cuts to the Lower Basin states.
The plan also calls for a new agreement to send water from upstream reservoirs, like Blue Mesa, in Colorado, to protect water levels and dam infrastructure in Lake Powell.
Deal still seems far away, and lawsuits could loom
A main sticking point in negotiations has been the Upper Basin’s unwillingness to agree to any mandatory water cuts. For years, Colorado has insisted that, unlike the Lower Basin, who can count on water stored up in reservoirs, the Upper Basin is at the whims of Mother Nature.
“We cannot provide certainty to our lower basin neighbors that we as upper basin water users have never had ourselves,” Amy Ostdiek, a section chief at the Colorado Water Conservation Board, told a group of water experts on Thursday.
Mitchell also said Thursday that Colorado would not accept a “bad deal” for the state’s water users.
But the prospect of deep water cuts across the Lower Basin, or long, drawn-out litigation, could test that position.
Tribes, states or other groups are now able to sue Reclamation over its final plan, and could argue that the agency erred in how it conducted its environmental review.
Some tribes, like the Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) in Arizona, have indicated that drastic federal water cuts could force a lawsuit. Many tribes in the basin also have water rights on paper that have never been fully realized.
GRIC Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis said that while litigation is certainly not the community’s first choice, it is an option.
“The community … will not hesitate to turn to the courts to protect our interests and our future,” he said at a CU-Boulder water conference in June.
Editor's note: This story was updated to include comments from Colorado negotiator Becky Mitchell.